Author Archives: Rhyse Nier

August CPI report released in Mid-September showed us inflation YoY at 3.7%, well below the 8% highs we were battling a year ago. Let me be clear, the last 3 years of up and down turbulence, both in the equities market and real economy, are predominantly driven from a supply side issue. Supply contractions fromContinue reading “FED Circular Logic? No Soft Landing in the Rearview Mirror”

We have decided to exit our $SOFI position after the most recent earnings report (1/30/2023). The 15% move intraday and a market close above its 200dma did not deter the decision process. SoFi exhibited another strong quarter, beating estimates for EPS and top line. Giving a strong forward look for 2023, this gave the stockContinue reading “January 2023 – Position Exit”

Editorial by Ethan Fisher – A good friend of the Group. Energy: For the three-month period ended 9/30, we saw NY gas prices fall ~23% from the 4.70s to 3.60s in line with the general macro retracement. Originally exacerbated by Putin’s aggression and the politics of the Nord Stream Pipeline, we have now seen theContinue reading “Energy Outlook, Commodities, Global Issues”

Fed funds rate has hit 2.25-2.50% marking its 4th hike this year with more increases expected through the end of 2022. Date Increase Decrease Level (%) July 28 75 0 2.25-2.50 June 16 75 0 1.50-1.75 May 5 50 0 0.75-1.00 March 17 25 0 0.25-0.50 The Sep 13th CPI print will be an importantContinue reading “Yield Curve, Oil, H2 2022”

Markets face a myriad of hurdles as we approach 2022; supply chain constraints, high inflation prints, political landscape changes, 2022 Mid-term elections, and a tight labor market to name a few. The FOMC concluded its last meeting of 2021 on December 15th and their position was predictable. They signaled an accelerated taper of asset purchasingContinue reading “Outlook $SPY $QQQ $IWM”

Last two posts we wrote up on interesting companies ended in implosion. The Citron report on Nikola (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nikola-stock-price-citron-hindenburg-allegations-investor-selling-short-report-2020-9) with videos showing a truck rolling down a steep road was nothing short of comical. Was it a long term investment idea? Maybe not so much. Did we trade the stock on momentum and exit with profits?Continue reading “$PLTR Palantir Technologies”

Nikola Corporation now listed on the NASDAQ after a reverse merger with VectoIQ Acquisition Corp, has drawn a lot of attention for its zero-emission hydrogen based trucks. The 5-year-young company is focused on developing battery-electric trucks for major supply chains and effectively developing Hydrogen Trucks by 2023. With the reverse merger and fresh input ofContinue reading “Nikola Corporation”

In response to COVID, the amount of liquidity injected into the economy over the last 2 months is beyond unprecedented. The CARES act passed by congress totaled over $2Tn in spending for relief and as of 5/15/2020, the new proposed HEROES bill has passed the House. This second relief bill contains a new $3Tn inContinue reading “The Dollar”

Luckin Coffee, Inc. manufactures coffee and operates coffee retail stores. The firm’s new retail model is built upon mobile apps and store network. The Mobile Apps: Mobile apps cover the entire customer purchase process. The Store Network: Its pick-up stores have limited seating and are typically located in areas with high demand for coffee, suchContinue reading “Luckin Coffee”